|
Nhung con so va ty le keo luon la manh dat mau mo nhung cung day thach thuc doi voi bat ky tin do bong da nao dam me ca cuoc. Trong the gioi da dang cua cac loai keo, keo xien Bongdaso noi len nhu mot thu thach hap dan, noi ma chien thang nho co the nhan len thanh nhung khoan loi nhuan khong lo. Tuy nhien, de bien nhung du doan mo ho thanh chien thang chac chan, viec nhan dinh keo xien kqbd can phai co phuong phap, su logic va mot chut nghe thuat quan sat. Bai viet nay se di sau vao nhung yeu to then chot giup ban xay dung "bo khung" nhan dinh vung chac, giam thieu rui ro va tang co hoi "ve bo" an toan.
Keo Xien La Gi va Tai Sao No Hap Dan?
Truoc khi di vao chuyen mon, ta can hieu ro ban chat cua keo xien. Keo xien (hay con goi la keo cuoc gop) la viec ban ket hop hai hoac nhieu tran dau rieng le vao mot ve cuoc duy nhat. De thang keo xien, tat ca cac lua chon trong ve cuoc do deu phai thang. Su hap dan nam o cho, ty le thuong (odds) cua cac tran dau se duoc nhan voi nhau, tao ra mot he so nhan cuc ky cao, bien so tien cuoc nho be thanh loi nhuan dang ke.
Chinh vi tinh chat "duoc an ca, nga ve khong" nay, nhan dinh keo xien doi hoi do chinh xac cao hon nhieu so voi viec chi dat cuoc mot tran don le. Sai mot ly la di ca dam duong.
Ba Tru Cot Trong Nhan Dinh Keo Xien Bongdaso Hieu Qua
De xay dung mot ve xien chat luong, chung ta can tap trung vao ba yeu to cot loi sau day, thuong duoc cac chuyen gia Bongdaso nhan manh:
- Phan Tich Chuyen Sau Tung Tran Dau (Micro-Analysis)
Dung bao gio dat cuoc chi dua tren ten tuoi doi bong hay su yeu thich ca nhan. Moi tran dau trong xien can duoc mo xe ky luong:
Phong do gan day: Xem xet 5-7 tran gan nhat cua ca hai doi. Doi nao dang co chuoi thang on dinh? Doi nao vua bi bat ngo thua tran? Phong do san nha/san khach cung la yeu to quan trong khong kem.
Luc luong va The phat/Chan thuong: Mot su vang mat cua tien dao chu luc hoac trung ve thep co the thay doi hoan toan cuc dien tran dau. Hay kiem tra cac tin tuc doi hinh moi nhat tren cac trang cap nhat uy tin.
Dong luc thi dau (Motivation): Day la yeu to thuong bi bo qua. Doi bong nao can diem de tru hang/gianh ve Champions League? Doi nao da het muc tieu va co dau hieu buong xuoi? Dong luc la "chat xuc tac" vo hinh nhung manh me nhat.
- Xay Dung Cau Truc Xien Hop Ly (Structure Building)
Nguyen tac vang cua nhan dinh keo xien Bongdaso la "Chat luong hon so luong". Nhieu nguoi tham lam nhoi nhet 5-6 tran vao xien, nhung xac suat thang se giam di theo cap so nhan.
Xien kep (2-3 tran): Day la loai xien an toan nhat, tap trung vao cac tran ma ban co do tu tin tren 80%. Neu ban co 3 tran chac chan thang voi ty le 1.5, nhan lai se cho ty le thuong hap dan ma rui ro duoc kiem soat.
Tranh xa cac tran "Derby" cang thang: Nhung tran dau ma tinh chat doi dau qua lon thuong rat kho luong, ngay ca khi doi manh hon chap sau. Ty le bat ngo luon cao.
Uu tien Keo Chau A (Handicap) thay vi Keo Chau Au (1X2): Keo Chau A giup ban co "phao cuu sinh" voi keo dong banh (0) hoac keo nua trai (+0.5). Neu hoa, ban co the go von hoac chi thua mot nua. Dieu nay lam giam bot su khac nghiet cua keo xien.
- Quan Ly Von va Tam Ly Nguoi Choi (Bankroll Management)
Ngay ca nhung phan tich tot nhat cung co the gap phai "ngay xui xeo". De ton tai lau dai voi keo xien Bongdaso, ky luat quan ly von la toi quan trong.
Ty le tien cuoc: Chi nen dat mot phan rat nho tong ngan sach (vi du: 1-3%) cho moi ve xien. Neu ban quyet dinh choi xien lon, tien cuoc phai cuc ky nho.
Khong "Go Gac" bang Xien: Khi thua mot vai ve xien lien tiep, tam ly muon go nhanh se dan den viec tang tien cuoc hoac chon nhung tran dau thieu can cu. Day la con duong nhanh nhat dan den chay tai khoan. Hay dung lai, xem xet lai phuong phap va cho doi co hoi tot hon.
Tan Dung Du Lieu Bongdaso De Cung Co Nhan Dinh
Cac trang nhu Bongdaso cung cap du lieu vo tan, nhung quan trong la ban biet cach chat loc. Hay chu y den:
Bien dong Ty le Keo: Neu ty le keo chap giam dot ngot truoc gio bong lan, do co the la dau hieu cua dong tien lon hoac thong tin noi bo bat loi cho doi cua tren.
So sanh Keo Chau A va Chau Au: Neu keo Chau Au nghieng han ve doi A, nhung keo Chau A lai chi chap nhe, dieu nay cho thay nha cai dang than trong voi kha nang thang tuyet doi cua doi A.
Ket Luan: Su Kien Nhan La Chia Khoa Vang
Nhan dinh keo xien Bongdaso khong phai la mot tro choi may rui ma la mot mon nghe thuat doi hoi su ket hop giua phan tich du lieu khach quan va kinh nghiem chu quan. Hay nho, muc tieu khong phai la thang moi ve xien ban dat, ma la dam bao ty le thang cua ban cao hon ty le thua trong dai han. Xay dung mot chien luoc vung chac, giu vung ky luat, va ban se thay nhung con so nhan loi nhuan tu keo xien tro nen gan gui hon bao gio het. Chuc ban luon la nguoi chien thang tren nhung duong cuoc day kich tinh! Xem them: Lich thi dau, Nhung duong link huu ich:
|
